Insider Comments
The following Insider Comments page is designed to provide a short opinion on topical subjects that we consider to be of particular relevance to both existing and potential clients of JCRA.
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Despite popular opposition, we think that the most likely outcome of the Greek crisis will be some sort of conditional bail-out, particularly since EU officials have recently changed their stance from denying the possibility of a bail-out to denying the existence of a concrete plan. On the basis that nothing should ever be believed until it is officially denied, it is now a racing certainty that the concrete is virtually set.
Even with the ongoing shenanigans in Greece and some disappointing housing and consumer confidence data from the US (new home sales down 11.2% in January; median new home price down from USD 215,600 in December to USD 203,500 in January; and the consumer confidence index declining from 56.5 to 46 in February, against an expectation of 55) the EUR/USD exchange rate closed on Friday at 1.3625, barely changed on the week.
It was sterling for which the markets reserved a very special negative sentiment last week. Both the GBP and EUR sold off against the USD during the week but, while the EUR rallied against the USD on Thursday and Friday, the GBP failed to do so, meaning that EUR/GBP ended the week over a penny higher at 0.8931, the highest close since the 12th of January.